Could AI help with the climate change?

The Amazon rainforest is one of the most important ecosystems on Earth. It covers more than 5 million sq km across nine countries and hosts more than 10% of the world's biodiversity. It also plays a vital role in regulating the global climate, absorbing billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide every year and producing about 20% of the world's oxygen.

But this precious natural resource is under constant threat from human activities. Illegal logging, mining, farming and ranching have destroyed more than 20% of the original forest area, and continue to eat away at it at an alarming rate. According to satellite data from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon reached a 12-year high in 2022, with more than 11,000 sq km cleared in just one year.

The consequences of losing the Amazon are dire. Not only would it endanger millions of plant and animal species, many of which are endemic to the region, but it would also accelerate global warming by releasing huge amounts of stored carbon into the atmosphere and reducing the forest's capacity to absorb more. Scientists warn that if deforestation continues at this pace, the Amazon could reach a tipping point where it becomes too dry and fragmented to sustain itself, turning into a savanna-like landscape with devastating impacts for the planet.

But there is hope. A new tool developed by researchers at Imazon, a non-governmental organization dedicated to promoting sustainable development in the Amazon, could help prevent further deforestation and protect the forest's biodiversity. The tool, called PrevisIA, uses artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze satellite images and historical data to predict where and when deforestation is likely to occur in the future.

PrevisIA was launched in March 2023 as part of Imazon's Deforestation Alert System (SAD), which monitors forest cover changes in near real time and alerts authorities and civil society about illegal activities. PrevisIA adds a proactive dimension to SAD by providing monthly forecasts of deforestation risk for different regions and conservation areas in the Brazilian Amazon.

One of the areas identified by PrevisIA as having the highest risk of deforestation in 2023 is Triunfo do Xingu, an Environmental Protection Area (APA) in the state of Pará. This APA covers more than 16,000 sq km and is home to rare and endangered species such as the white-cheeked spider monkey, the hyacinth macaw and the jaguar. It also contains valuable timber resources and mineral deposits that attract illegal loggers and miners.

PrevisIA estimated that Triunfo do Xingu could lose up to 271.52 sq km of forest by the end of 2023, equivalent to about 38,000 football pitches. The tool also showed that most of the deforestation would occur along roads and rivers that provide access to remote areas. In March alone, about 5 sq km of forest were cleared in Triunfo do Xingu.

But PrevisIA is not just a doom-and-gloom scenario. It also offers a way to prevent or reduce deforestation by informing decision-makers and stakeholders about where to focus their efforts and resources. By knowing in advance where deforestation is likely to happen, authorities can plan and implement more effective actions to deter illegal activities, such as increasing law enforcement patrols, imposing fines or sanctions, or promoting alternative livelihoods for local communities.

PrevisIA also enables conservationists and researchers to monitor and evaluate the impact of their interventions on forest cover changes. For example, Imazon has been working with local partners to implement a pilot project called Forest Guardians in Triunfo do Xingu since 2019. The project trains and equips indigenous and traditional communities to monitor their territories using smartphones and drones, and report any signs of deforestation or invasion to authorities. PrevisIA can help measure how much forest has been saved or lost as a result of this initiative.

PrevisIA is not the only example of how AI can be used to combat deforestation and climate change in the Amazon. Other initiatives include MapBiomas Alerta, which uses machine learning to detect land use changes across Brazil; Global Forest Watch, which uses AI and satellite data to track forest loss worldwide; and Rainforest Connection, which uses acoustic sensors and AI to detect illegal logging activities in real time.

PrevisIA is an artificial intelligence platform created by researchers at Imazon, a Brazilian environmental nonprofit. It uses an algorithm to analyze satellite images from the European Space Agency and find areas that are prone to deforestation, based on indicators such as illegal roads, logging, mining, and land grabbing. PrevisIA can simulate future scenarios and alert policymakers and conservationists about the high-risk areas, so they can take preventive actions to stop forest loss events, such as fires, before they happen .

MapBiomas is a collaborative network formed by NGOs, universities, and technology companies that produces annual maps of land cover and land use in Brazil from 1985 to 2021. MapBiomas uses machine learning and cloud computing to process and classify satellite images into 27 categories, such as forest, pasture, agriculture, urban areas, water bodies, etc. MapBiomas provides data and analysis on deforestation, secondary vegetation growth, mining areas, irrigation, pasture quality, water surface changes, and fire impacts .

Alerta is a web-based tool that receives alerts from various sources of monitoring systems, such as Syslog, SNMP, Prometheus, Nagios, Zabbix, Sensu, netdata, etc. Alerta can de-duplicate and correlate alerts based on environment and resource attributes and display them in a web console optimized for desktop, tablet and mobile. Alerta can also send notifications via email or other channels and integrate with other tools using API keys. Alerta can help users to manage and visualize alerts from different monitoring systems in a unified way .

Deforestation is one of the main threats to the Amazon rainforest and its ecosystem services. Deforestation causes loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and changes in regional climate patterns. According to MapBiomas data, Brazil lost about 13% of its original forest cover between 1985 and 2021 . Most of the deforestation occurred in the states of Pará, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Amazonas, and Acre .

AI could help with the climate change by providing data-driven solutions, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing human collaboration. For example, AI could analyze satellite images and weather patterns to predict the impact of natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and wildfires. AI could also help optimize the use of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, by adjusting the supply and demand according to the grid conditions. AI could also facilitate cross-border cooperation and information sharing among governments, NGOs, and researchers to tackle the global challenge of climate change.

However, AI alone is not enough to solve the climate crisis. AI also poses some risks and challenges, such as ethical issues, social implications, and environmental impacts. For instance, AI could increase the digital divide and inequality among different regions and groups of people. AI could also consume a lot of energy and generate a lot of electronic waste, which could worsen the carbon footprint. Therefore, AI should be used responsibly and sustainably, with respect for human rights and environmental values. AI should be a tool for human empowerment and well-being, not a threat or a replacement.